Obama wins, Freedom loses.
My thoughts this morning…
1) Seriously considering exercising my 2nd amendment rights before Jan 20th. I think O’s tactic will be that they won’t outright ban what they don’t like, but rather make it so expensive that it radically changes behavior. Imagine a large federally-funded “victims of gun violence” insurance program, paid for by a large tax on ammunition and gun sales. Handgun? They start at $2,000. Ammunition? $150 tax. Yes they are sill available, but they will be prohibitively expensive.
2) Airlines… Since nearly all labor contracts for the major airlines come due next year, the power of striking will be front and center. There will be little threat of a PEB (presidential emergency board), effectively giving unions a huge lever to pull if negotiations don’t work. Of course, this increases the chances of a union going for broke (literally) and possibly crippling a carrier for a long time. I would not be surprised to see UAL and AAL pilot unions try this.
3) Oil. That $150/bbl last summer? Chump change compared to what it will be. Mideast tensions will be unstable as the US military pulls out and Iran, Syria, and Saudi Arabia fight over the remnants of Iraq and Afghanistan. Pakistan will look to flex their muscles and possibly push into Afghanistan. Oil will skyrocket as O shows his “hands off” policies toward “blood for oil”.
4) Maybe Obama can work on DHS rules. If he makes the US an easier place to visit, it may help airlines bring more people here. Of course, the fact that he’ll have to borrow massive amounts of money to bring about “Hope and Change” will make the US very cheap as the value of the dollar plummets.
5) The USA is still the #1 target of worldwide terrorists. Never forget that. And, our airlines are some of the most visible targets.
6) Item #4 below is true… our next-gen Conservative candidates will come from the ranks of Iraq war vets, and there is a new electoral process in place now. No longer can you have complicated ideas. Obama had simple messages “95% of tax payers get a tax cut”, “Fix healthcare”… the fact they were wrong, or lies, need not matter. McCain simply didn’t have a repeatable message. Nor did he have the organization to pull it off. Lacking money and an organization, it doesn’t matter what your policies are. Also the next GOP candidate will NEED to be a good speaker. I’d say 60% of Obama’s draw is his speaking ability.
7) Sarah Palin has a bright career ahead of her. I’d say make her the Chairman of the Republican Party.
As for aviation (may be some repeats):
1) Oil will skyrocket. Once Obama orders the surrender of the US operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Taliban/Al Qaeda will use that to hold the US hostage to $200+/BBL oil. Barry will of course no do anything, he wants to get the US off of oil, with no replacement technology available.
2) Labor, and the flurry of contracts that become amendable in 2009, will have a greater chance of striking as Barry will NOT appoint a PEB to avert a strike. This could cripple one or two carriers.
3) If he taxes businesses the way he said he would, that will make business travel much more unlikely as businesses cut back to pay confiscatory tax rates.
4) I am holding out hope that the TSA/DHS/ICE will be worked on, so that the US becomes an easier place to visit. Maybe take some of these groups off hair-trigger alert and allow shampoo back on airplanes.
5) Since Barry is a collectivist and has no regard for individual rights, maybe he can fight the NIMBYs that oppose airport expansion. Also, if he is able to align transportation policy to include air and rail, as well as local mass transit, I’ll be impressed. But, considering he’s never led or managed anything, I’m not keeping my hopes up.
6) Carbon credits can seriously harm the industry, as it will tax emissions and not allow the already-reduced emissions to count. His carbon offsets are based on *reductions*, not actual numbers. Many of the older aircraft have been retired after 9/11, so those reductions do not count.
